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Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Will Robots Steal Human Jobs? by David R. Henderson.

David Henderson has written a great article on the future of robots and how they will not take our jobs in the future! I think he is using robots as a blanket term for both AI and robots. So the doom and gloom around A.I and robots stealing our jobs may not happen according to Mr. Henderson!

"Non-economists have two biases that distort their understanding of economics. One is what my co-blogger, George Mason University economist Bryan Caplan, calls the pessimism bias. It’s easier for people to be pessimistic than optimistic, both about the future and about current affairs in the world. Therefore, it’s reasonable to “adjust up” their predictions. If people are pessimistic about robots, we should be more optimistic."

"Here’s the other bias. Non-economists tend to put undue weight on what the nineteenth-century economist Frederic Bastiat called “the seen,” and too little weight on the “unseen.” That matters here. It’s much easier to point out jobs that have been destroyed due to robots than to the ones that have been or will be created. If we knew what industries would be created in the future, we could invest accordingly and become incredibly wealthy. Unfortunately, we don’t know. What we can be highly confident of, though, is that there will be jobs."
"Think of it this way. Every time people predicted that automation and machinery would destroy jobs overall, they were wrong. Are they really likely to be right this time around?"
You may want to take up Donald Boudreaux on his bet below if you don't agree with this article!
"And there’s more good news. If you disagree with me and are confident about your disagreement, you can make some real money. Another George Mason University economist named Donald Boudreaux recently offered to bet on the issue. Here’s what he wrote to a job pessimist:"
"I will bet you $10,000, straight up, that in not one of the next 20 years will the annual U.S. labor-force participation rate, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, fall below 58.1 percent—which is the lowest rate on record at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  (The labor-force participation rate hit this post-WWII low in December 1954.  And because the unemployment rate does not count unemployed workers who are so discouraged that they’ve stopped looking for jobs, the labor-force participation rate is more likely than is the unemployment rate to capture any long-term job-destroying effects of technology.)"
"If you strongly believe the opposite, take Boudreaux up on his bet."
Full article here! 

Also, make sure that you read the comments at the bottom of the article some of them are interesting and well thought out!
There is some great information in this article! So even if you don't agree with his take it should make you rethink and reevaluate your ideas about A.I and robots in the future. I also hope that articles like this one will help keep ideas like UBI (universal basic income) from happening. As I see UBI as being yet another government run disaster waiting to happen.  

What is UBI.

Also much sure you read the comments at the bott